What David Clark's Eight-Company Data Actually Tells Us

David Clark at VenCap just shared something that made me pause.

He analyzed 119 funds they backed between 2010-2020. Across ALL those funds—every company, every exit, every markup—just EIGHT companies drove essentially all the returns:

Wiz, OpenAI, RocketLab, Figma, Robinhood, Revolut, Xiaohongshu, Circle.

Eight companies. 119 funds. A decade of work.

And here's what's notable: 42% of those funds lost money in the last 12 months. Not necessarily poor funds or inexperienced GPs. Just funds that didn't have exposure to those eight names.

But here's what I think this really means:

There's no single "right" way to build a venture portfolio.

I respect LPs who concentrate on 5 established funds. I respect LPs who back 30 emerging managers. I respect US-only strategies. I respect global diversification plays. I respect small fund specialists. I respect large fund allocators.

What matters is conviction and consistency with your own thesis.

If you believe in concentrated bets on proven managers—David's data supports that. Chase the funds that consistently find those 8 outliers.

If you believe in emerging manager diversification—David's data supports that too. You need exposure to lots of funds because you don't know which GP will find the next OpenAI.

If you're building a small fund portfolio—you're betting on managers who have to be selective and can't spray and pray.

If you're backing large funds—you're betting on platform advantages and network effects that increase odds of seeing those deals.

The LPs I don't respect? The ones with no thesis at all.

The ones diversifying because "that's often the standard approach." The ones exploring answers to "why this manager?" The ones still developing their edge.

David's data doesn't tell us there's one right strategy. It tells us that venture is extreme—and your strategy better account for that reality.

Whether you concentrate or diversify, go emerging or established, small or large—own it with conviction and data.

Thanks to David Clark at VenCap International (32 years of fund-of-funds experience) for sharing data that proves venture is not for the wishy-washy.